Friday, December 01, 2006

Q:
+ mar 75c -5.25 debit
- dec 75c +.75 credit
+ jan 80c -.85 debit
- mar 75c +5.0 credit

My bias is the stock (WLP goes back to 74 by expiration) What should I do?

A: this is not a great position to be in even if you are convinced the stock goes back to 74. The credit received for the dec 75c was small, offering the trader little buffer against an upside move. The upside jan 80c (protection) is a whopping 5 pts away. This position is also taking on hard delta, meaning the short is ITM and the delta growing more than 2x as fast as the long leg if this trend persists.
For 10 spreads if stock goes back towards 75 u have a chance to breakeven on the whole thing. But, if we expire at 80, $3k loss.

Not a great risk reward trade.

I would say if one is absolutely convinced at the 74 bias, at least reduce the position by 1/2 immediately. Ask yourself this question, If I had no position in WLP right now, would I short 340 shares of stock? (delta exposure of current position sized at 10 spreads).

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