Saturday, March 17, 2007
I need to be right
This was an actual conversation.
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Jody says: hi
optionsjunky says: hey
Jody says: how are you?
optionsjunky says: good and yourself?
Jody says: ok
optionsjunky says: setup trades for apr?
Jody says: I'm in puts on ANN now. It's going bad on me.
optionsjunky says: as long as u didn’t bet the farm, and u have your stop loss planned out, its not a problem, right?
Jody says: well, I lost most of what I put into it. I got 10 contracts of the 40 put. (ANN now at 38.60).
Jody says: I don’t have a stop loss.
optionsjunky says: the apr 40 put is still worth 2.1
Jody says: yeah it is. but I paid about 3 times that.
optionsjunky says: if the original reason for entering the trade is no longer valid, salvage what u can and move on to better looking trades.
optionsjunky says: you are a trader, no need to go into the ground with anything, u are smart and agile.
Jody says: I can't get out now. It will be a big loss for me.
optionsjunky says: so u would be willing to lose another 2.1 then ?
Jody says: I don't want to lose any more.
Jody says: I want the stock to go down. I'm hoping it will.
optionsjunky says: the chart looks like news related, did you play the news?
Jody says: no, I got in last week when it was going down.
optionsjunky says: well, anything can happen I suppose, u got 32 days to find out.
Jody says: I'm sick of losing money in the stock market!
optionsjunky says: if you are still bearish, u should load up on the 35puts, they are on fire sale right now!!!!
Jody says: 35 is OTM. We're not supposed to buy those.
optionsjunky says: whopping 35 cents a piece!!!
optionsjunky says: u are not supposed to let a losing position go this far against you either.
optionsjunky says: u are only down 4 grand right now , what’s another $350 for the otm puts? besides, u are fully willing to lose another 2100.
optionsjunky says: double down with $350, I say.
Jody says: ok
Jody says: do you think the stock will go down?
optionsjunky says: what does your guru say about stock gapping up like that?
Jody says: I don’t know
optionsjunky says: what I think about the stock direction, has no relevance in this case, what’s important here, is u are willing to lose another 2.1, yet unwilling to spend another .35 to swing for the fence. Now, u tell me if that makes any sense???
Jody says: I'm not willing to lose another 2.1
optionsjunky says: the stock will do what it will do in the coming days, no amount of mulling over, prediction, or crystal ball will change that fact, it is what it is.
optionsjunky says: a trader that is not willing to take ANY losses.
Jody says: yeah
optionsjunky says: u should stay in bank CDs
optionsjunky says: here is what I will predict for you, the rest of the weekend, you will
Jody says: I’ll never make money on those.
optionsjunky says: seek out an opinion that is bearish to make you feel better, until u find that opinion, u will think everyone else is crazy.
optionsjunky says: don’t forget to stop by ANN yahoo message board
Jody says: What's on there?
optionsjunky says: bulls and bears for ANN
optionsjunky says: u will find bulls hi fiving each other there on the gap up, and the bitter bears touting all the reasons why the stock should go down.
xxxx says: just a beginner here, but what if Jody change and buy calls now ?
optionsjunky says: any adjustment here will take on some degrees of additional risk.
optionsjunky says: if she wanted to turn bullish she can spread it by selling the apr 45 put.
xxxx says: yes but stock is bullish now, look at the chart is bullish
optionsjunky says: that’s not Jody's problem, Jody's core problem, is she is not going to lose no matter what, and may end up losing the whole thing.
optionsjunky says: Jody is always right.
Jody says: I hate being wrong.
optionsjunky says: I don’t believe I have mis-spoke.
optionsjunky says: your problem is you, not the trading system, or your picks.
optionsjunky says: the need to be right, is your downfall.
optionsjunky says: the moment u choose to ignore the stop loss rule that you bot with the $2000 seminar, You are basically saying u are bigger than the market, no matter what.
Jody says: OK, I'll get rid of the put on Monday.
optionsjunky says: the more educated the person, the more they have to be right.
optionsjunky says: bec. they have been successful with that method in society, and think the market can be worked the same way.
optionsjunky says: if I have mis-spoke in anyway, Jody, feel free to call me on it.
Jody says: I think you're right.
Jody says: you've talked me into getting rid of the put.
optionsjunky says: NO I didn’t. u just want me to go away.
optionsjunky says: its not about right or wrong and who is what. Its pure trader psychology.
optionsjunky says: I don’t care if I am right, I am not the one 4 grand in the hole.
optionsjunky says: even if this stock end s up tanking next week, and u end up making $$ on it, deep down in your heart, u know this is not the way to last long, how long can u stay this lucky?
Jody says: not very long
optionsjunky says: Casinos build their hotels resorts on these kind of gamblers.
optionsjunky says: The gamblers that love the action, yet are unwilling to cut their losses. The perfect target demographic.
optionsjunky says: I have to run will be back later.
Jody says: ok
Jody says: thanks
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1 comment:
I don't have to be right. But, I don't want to be wrong!!!
This is exactly why I like the TOS way of trading--all probability based with no technical analysis (TA) or no fundamental analysis (FA). TOS only teach probability analyse. The TOS premises is that no one can predict price movement direction, but one can estimate price movement range base on implies volatility. I know how much money I could loss right from the start. If the trade is not making money, it is because the price move out out of the probability range of the trade. It is not because of my TA or FA is wrong. I often wondered if TA or FA really do better than the standard deviation probability. TA is like voodoo for me!!!
Of course risk management and money management are always essential in any style of trading.
Ringo
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