Tuesday, December 05, 2006

20x INFY DEC 55 ATM puts, 10 days to expiration

Q:

I have 20x DEC 55 PUT bought at $1.25.. have only 10 days or so... need
some advice in terms of how to reduce the risk..bec. the stock is
already about $55.. should I close it.. or get some call to cover the
risk. Stock is up and down it was 52 three days back and now
55... stock pattern looks strong its going to swing based on the market..
but if u look at the PE its more than 46 times and doubled in last 4 month
after the split.

My thought when I bought the unit is to use the volatility to make some
money.. went to 55 from 53 in two days on average volume...
Would really appreciate any thoughts.
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A:

Time decay is against you in these last few days of the expiration cycle. At 20x u are losing roughly $90 per day just on time decay.
If stock stays above 55 by expiration u will lose the whole thing.
If you are long term bearish and must pick tops in rallies like this, at least buy longer term options where the time decay is dramatically slower. Look to jan or apr perhaps.
Here is the risk profile of your position, click on pic to see larger. See my video, how to read a risk graph if having trouble.

Here are some additional thoughts:
If the weather forecast is sunny, yet its actually starting to drizzle outside, which do you believe?
If the drizzle turns into light rain, what do you do?
If light rain persists for several hours, do you stick with the original sunny forecast or prepare accordingly when heading outside?

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